Crossing the river by feeling for stones: a new approach to exporting creative content to China?

We have all heard the statistics about China\u27s stellar growth and the large market for UK creative industries. But the trade numbers paint a different picture, suggesting that the UK is punching below its weight. This is not altogether surprising. Doing business in emerging markets like China is fraught with risk and uncertainty which can overwhelm even the most canny operations.  This paper examines what more can be done and highlights the novel role that digital social networks could play in overcoming these obstacles and helping UK creative businesses unlock export opportunities to China. ------------------- We have all heard the statistics. About how China is forecast to overtake the US to be the largest economy in the world by 2027.1 How China already has 277 million mobile web users, of which 45 per cent use their handsets to access music and 21 per cent video games.2 How more than 300 million Chinese are studying English.3 How Chinese e–commerce is predicted to triple by 2015, when sales could hit $420 billion – 20 per cent higher than the projection for the US market.4 And how, at 67,300, China sends more students to UK universities than any other country in the world.5 These dizzying numbers should mean there is a particularly large market for the UK’s creative industries, right? The trade statistics suggest not. According to UNCTAD, in 2010 the UK’s share of creative goods exports to China was just 1.4 per cent, compared with a 4.8 per cent share in world creative goods exports.6 UK exports of creative goods to China totalled$140 million, lower than not only Japan ($900 million), the US ($800 million) and Singapore ($520 million), but also France ($224 million), Germany ($325 million) and Italy ($474 million).7 With the exception of Japan and Germany, the value of UK exports of creative goods grew at a slower rate than in all these countries between 2002 and 2010. These trade statistics are not without their problems – they exclude all creative services, for example – nonetheless they indicate that the UK’s creative industries are punchingbelow their weight in Chinese markets.   &nbsp

How uncertain are the welfare costs of inflation?

This paper quantifies some of the general equilibrium costs of inflation for the UK using a shopping-time model. It tests whether money balances tend to a finite number as nominal interest rates tend to zero, and explores how uncertainties about the shape of the money demand curve translate into uncertainties about these welfare costs of inflation. A key uncertainty is the existence of a satiation point for money balances. We show that without observations at nominal interest rates close to zero, the power of satiation tests can be low.

A manifesto for the creative economy

The UK\u27s creative economy is one of its great national strengths, historically deeply rooted and accounting for around one-tenth of the whole economy. It provides jobs for 2.5 million people – more than in financial services, advanced manufacturing or construction – and in recent years, this creative workforce has grown four times faster than the workforce as a whole. But behind this success lies much disruption and business uncertainty, associated with digital technologies. Previously profitable business models have been swept away, young companies from outside the UK have dominated new internet markets, and some UK creative businesses have struggled to compete. UK policymakers too have failed to keep pace with developments in North America and parts of Asia. But it is not too late to refresh tired policies. This manifesto sets out our 10-point plan to bolster one of the UK\u27s fastest growing sectors

Measuring intrinsic value – how to stop worrying and love economics

This paper seeks to transcend entrenched misunderstandings between economists and arts policymakers, leaders and funders. These misunderstandings, which have long dogged discussion on arts funding in the UK, are most evident in the long-running debate about ‘instrumental’ and ‘intrinsic’ approaches to public expenditure on culture and the arts. As a general theory of public choice, economics provides tools for measuring the intrinsic as well as instrumental value of art in a way that is commensurable with other calls on the public purse. The reluctance to use rigorous economic methods has hindered rather than helped the case for the arts. This paper offers a provocative reconsideration of the outdated and poorly-informed prejudices which lie behind this reluctance. This is a prepublication draft. A version has been published electronically by Mission Models Money and can be accessed at http://www.missionmodelsmoney.org.uk/page.php?id=34cultural economics; creative industries; innovation; internet

Modelling Investment When Relative Prices Are Trending: Theory and Evidence for the UK

This paper investigates the ability of aggregate and disaggregate equations to account for the boom in UK plant and machinery investment in the second half of the 1990s. We extend previous US research by Tevlin and Whelan (2002) by explaining the failure of the aggregate equations more formally in terms of misspecification when relative prices are trending; and by conducting the econometric analysis in a formal cointegration framework. In line with the US research, we find asset-level equations can explain the UK investment boom over this period, whereas the aggregate equation completely fails.investment, computers, relative prices

The Phillips curve under state-dependent pricing

This paper is related to a large recent literature studying the Phillips curve in sticky-price equilibrium models. It differs in allowing for the degree of price stickiness to be determined endogenously. A closed-form solution for short-term inflation is derived from the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with state-dependent pricing originallydev eloped byDotsey , King and Wolman. This generalised Phillips curve encompasses the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) based on Calvo-type price-setting as a special case. It describes current inflation as a function of lagged inflation, expected future inflation, and current and expected future real marginal costs. The paper demonstrates that inflation dynamics generated bythe model for a broad class of time and state-dependent price-setting behaviours are well approximated bythe popular hybrid NKPC (with one lag of inflation) in a low-inflation environment. This provides an explanation of whythe hybrid NKPC performs well in describing inflation dynamics across industrial countries. It implies, however, that the reduced-form coefficients of the hybrid NKPC maynot have a structural interpretation.state-dependent pricing, inflation dynamics, Phillips curve

The net effect: using social media data to understand the impact of a conference on social networks

The research uses social media data from Twitter to develop a methodology for understanding the effects of events and conferences. Key findings: Social media data offers a rich source of information to understand the effects of events on networking. Attending events is associated with a much higher rate of growth in Twitter connections among event participants than with people outside the event. Many of the connections formed at events are between people who already have a mutual connection on Twitter, indicating that they are more likely to have met in the longer-term. However, there are also connections between people that are further apart in the Twitter network before the event. This is particularly true for international connections. Within conferences one can see social networking behaviour consistent with commercial incentives e.g. consultants connecting with potential clients (but not with each other), or people connecting along language lines

Nesta and the Evolving Creative Industries Policy Agenda in the UK and Australia

This is the edited transcript of a public interview that took place between Dr. Hasan Bakhshi, Executive Director, Creative Economy and Data Analytics at Nesta, and Terry Flew, with questions from Greg Hearn, Cori Stewart and other participants. The interview took place at the Creative Industries Precinct, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia, on 13 September 2017. The interview covers the history of Nesta, its role in shaping UK creative industries policies, and lessons for other countries around arts funding, education and skills, and the relationship to research policy